India vs New Zealand 5th T20I in Thiruvananthapuram

India already had a stronghold on the 5th T20I in their sights, and coming running over off the back of the Vizag game won’t change that, when the series between India and New Zealand started.

Well-known for their 215/7 and 50-run win in Vizag, New Zealand finally managed to land a solid punch, and pushed India into a desperate chase that didn’t really get going, even when Shivam Dube started swinging his bat like a man possessed, apparently ripping extra seconds off the clock.

Now the tour moves to Thiruvananthapuram, where the local conditions will ask batters to hit the hard lengths, treat the bigger boundaries with respect and have a plan in place for spin that isn’t just “see the ball and hit it”.

What Both Teams Want From the Finale

India are looking to wrap up the series 4-1 and tighten up their middle-order strategy, while New Zealand will be out to prove that their Vizag show wasn’t a one-off, and their partnerships can withstand the pressure of India’s powerplay.

India’s series lead 3-1 doesn’t mean much anymore, because we’ve seen two very different versions of this contest in the last four matches, and the fifth one is essentially a test run for roles.

Who sets the tone up top, who holds the fort and which bowling combination gives the captain a Plan B if their primary strategy fails. Jasprit Bumrah took 3 wickets, but Abhishek and Suryakumar, with 68 not out off 20 and 57 not out off 26 respectively, finished the chase in a mere ten overs, when New Zealand were reeling at 153/9.

The Fourth Match Turned the Series

Well-known for being a turning point in the series, the fourth game in Vizag finally swung New Zealand’s way. Coming in at 62 off 36, Tim Seifert got the ball rolling, Devon Conway’s 44 off 23 kept the momentum high, and some late fireworks pushed the total to 215/7. India, however, crumbled, and were eventually bowled out for 165, Dube’s 65 off 23 being the only real resistance that almost changed the result.

Key Performers and What the Numbers Say

Suryakumar leads the way in India’s run chart with a staggering 179 runs at a head-spinning average of 89.5, and doesn’t sacrifice control to try and speed things up, and Abhishek has 152 runs to his name, a strike rate of north of 215 basically guarantees that if you don’t watch out, you’ll miss a 30-run burst.

Prithvi Kishan has solidified the wicket-keeper spot, netting 145 runs, a strike rate of more than 213 and has taken the uncertainty out of that particular role. India now have a neat and reliable plan for the middle overs too, which involves using a left-handed batsman, Dube, who hits straight and doesn’t take ten balls to get going.

For New Zealand, Phillips has been the biggest threat, hitting a mix of powerful shots and balls that work even when the pitch isn’t cooperating. Seifert’s knock in the fourth match showed that New Zealand can still take down the first six overs against India’s pace-and-skill combination, they don’t just manage to survive them.

New Zealand’s wicket tally is led by Jacob Duffy and Ish Sodhi, who have each claimed five wickets. But it’s not about the number of wickets, but the cost that’s the real issue. Duffy’s gone at around ten an over, which is fine if you score 200, but a problem if you don’t. The total goes from being “defendable” to needing a flawless chase, when one of the support bowlers at the end of the game lets loose.

Greenfield International Stadium: What It Demands

Coming up against the Greenfield International Stadium in Thiruvananthapuram, 220 isn’t guaranteed, only a handful of men’s T20Is have been hosted here and the usual pattern is a surface that plays fairly erratically at the start, but still makes spinners effective even under lights.

Well-known for its large outfield pockets and decent sized boundaries, the visual stress here is different. If you’ve built your innings on cross-bat shots into the bigger side, you’ll find yourself struggling if the timing isn’t right.

Clear and humid evening skies are forecast for Saturday night, so there will be a good deal of dew later on. This makes short-pitched bowling less reliable, so think hard lengths, wide yorkers and more intelligent fields to outmaneuver the opposition.

Workload, Spinners, and the Death Overs

India has won the series, so they can afford to think about their workload, and given that Bumrah has already been managed once, the temptation to keep him fresh is high, but so is the value of sending him back out there in a game that is starting to feel like a major tournament night game.

Coming to the decision about the two spinners, India have tried Varun Chakravarthy in the series before and then switched to Bishnoi in Vizag, with Kuldeep by his side. In the evening conditions at Greenfield, a two-spinner combination makes sense, but they won’t want to run short of a trusted death bowler if the dew slows things down.

The Keeper Battle and Samson’s Struggles

The batting problem is the number one priority, and in the last game, India paid for throwing Abhishek into the deep end, getting a duck on his first ball, which is an expensive price to pay. When it comes to the dynamic between Kishan and Samson, Kishan’s been putting in the numbers this series, with a batting method that is both impressive and consistent, his lightning-quick reflexes, spotless access to the off-side and his ability to capitalize on the fielding restrictions make him the kind of batsman who walks into the starting XI if he’s fully fit after his Vizag niggle.

Coming hurrying off the heels of his absence in Vizag, Samson’s series has been quite a disaster, with scores of 10, 6, 0 and 24 across the four games, and the patterns of his dismissals don’t help his case.

Hesitation against early movement and then flat-footedness when facing spinners attacking the stumps.

Although it doesn’t wipe out Samson’s natural talent, it does make the stakes higher, especially in the kind of game that the fifth T20I is turning out to be.

Where it’s not enough to just “look good” anymore, you’re going to have to carve out a role-defining innings.

New Zealand’s Plan: Pressure Across Phases

Well-known to anyone who has watched the games, New Zealand’s plan after Vizag was not just about hitting sixes, it was about piling on the pressure across different stages, Seifert kick-started their innings, Conway moved the tempo along, and Daryl Mitchell’s 39* off just 18 balls essentially turned the last five overs into a launchpad for them.

However, the bigger strategic victory for the Kiwis was on the bowling front, where Mitchell Santner attacked the stumps and claimed two crucial wickets, one of them being Samson, and then New Zealand’s spinners successfully made India hit into the longer parts of the ground, rather than giving them easy singles off the bat.

If New Zealand want to repeat that in Thiruvananthapuram, they’re going to need to stick to the same plan, cutting off India’s free runs when the ball starts to slow, and forcing them into a single, desperate shot per over.

Something that’s usually enough to stump a team that relies so heavily on rhythm.

Matchups That Could Decide the Game

The matches that could decide the outcome of the fifth T20I are basically the one-on-one battles between Abhishek Sharma and the new ball. New Zealand have twice had him bowled out for nothing in this series and it completely flipped the script of the chase in both cases, and if Abhishek stays at the crease for the first ten balls, he doesn’t just score. He rearranges the fields and gets the captains into defensive mode earlier than they’d like.

His performances have been elite, however, Greenfield is a venue that is more suited to the efficacy of leg-spin, when Suryakumar Yadav goes up against leg-spin in the Indian Premier League. Sodhi has the ability to get wickets even when runs are being scored, and with one poorly timed “hit it over the top” attempt can send the opposing team from a secure position to a jittery one.

Dube and Santner are the 5th and 6th hitters for their respective teams, and in Vizag we saw what Dube can do.

He can single-handedly turn around a “bad” over with one crushing blow. New Zealand tried the same strategy, but basically they were counting on him hitting against the turn into the longer boundary, and then inviting him to hit the straighter ball when it was a bit slower.

Seifert/Conway, India’s opening pair, have a tendency to get two early wickets in T20I games. Well-known for not just surviving but building a strong foundation in Vizag, the Indian openers can make 200+ runs a certainty. If the Indians get lucky with swing or seam in Thiruvananthapurm, that’s essentially the turning point of the match.

Likely Combinations for Both Teams

India have two most likely lineups, and the more conservative one for the tacky and damp conditions at Greenfield includes Abhishek Sharma, Ishan Kishan, Suryakumar Yadav, Rinku Singh, Shivam Dube, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Varun Chakravarthy/Ravi Bishnoi, Arshdeep Singh and Jasprit Bumrah. This gives the Indians control in the middle overs and a deep batting depth if they lose early wickets, and is essentially a safer option.

The more aggressive combination is similar to Vizag’s structure, with Abhishek Sharma, Ishan Kishan, Suryakumar Yadav, Rinku Singh, Shivam Dube, Hardik Pandya, Kuldeep Yadav, Ravi Bishnoi, Arshdeep Singh, Harshit Rana and Jasprit Bumrah, which has three specialist fast bowlers coming in for the last ten overs, but leaves them at the mercy of a terrible over if the dew makes the cutters too flat.

New Zealand’s best formation, which they will be going for, is led by Devon Conway, Tim Seifert, Mark Chapman, Glenn Phillips, Daryl Mitchell, Mitchell Santner, Zak Foulkes, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy, Ish Sodhi and Kyle Jamieson, and is based around its core top-order speedsters, pressure-hitting from Phillips, tight control from Santner, and the death bowling threat of Duffy/Sodhi.

It’s basically fair to say that totals in the 170-190 range are starting to become a serious proposition in this game, when Greenfield is compared to Raipur and Nagpur. Coming down to the wire, one side bowling well can seal the deal.

Strategy Snapshot

Series Position Going Into the Finale

Well-known to the teams, India’s strategy is clear: stabilise the top four and then unleash the likes of Dube and Rinku into the fray, where they can take on the opposition head-on. New Zealand will look to repeat the Vizag template, get one of the powerplays right, then let Santner and Sodhi control the middle.

If you like following how the pre-match predictions move when the toss is made and the dew sets in, the story of the game can change fairly quickly. Jeetwin App is one place you can watch that momentum play out in real time.

Coming into the game, India have a three-one edge over New Zealand, but after the Kiwis’ win in Vizag, this match is now much closer than it initially was.